As we begin a new year, hoping it will be usher in global economic recovery, I would like to share what I can find about the collective forecasting in our industry. In my search, I found several predictions about stress testing the financial systems. Hmmm…interesting, but not helpful.

One really cool article on Business Insider showed the predictions of visionaries from 1931 of their view of 80 years in the future. William Ogburn had the best view of our high-tech world:

Technological progress, with its exponential law of increase, holds the key to the future. Labor displacement will proceed even to automatic factories. The magic of remote control will be commonplace. Humanity’s most versatile servant will be the electron tube.

Fascinating! Bravo Mr. Ogburn. Although it wasn’t the electron tube, you have the right idea. Wonder what will replace silicon chips in the next 80 years?

Mobile Performance Testing Predictions for 2011

Joshua Bixby, the President of web performance company Strangeloop, puts forth these prognostications in his article entitled 2011 Web performance predictions for the mobile industry:

  1. Companies will generate at least 15% of Web sales via their social presence and mobile applications.
  2. Android will become the No. 1 mobile platform, surpassing the iPhone in terms of units and usage.
  3. Retailers will realize that mobile shoppers have a goal-driven “hunter” mentality.
  4. As a result of No. 3, mobile Web performance will become as important as desktop Web performance.

Load Testing in the Cloud – I’ve Heard That Before

Fred Beringer not only makes a pretty good California wine, he is a load tester that prefers to use the cloud. Although he joined a competitor to LoadStorm in 2010, I still like him because of all the nice things he said about us before that. He wrote a blog post called My prediction for 2011 – The tipping point for Cloud Testing that shows poll results that predict these top 3 trends in software testing for the coming year:

  1. Agile Testing
  2. Automation
  3. Testing in the Cloud

Looking Forward and Backward Regarding Software & IT

A post by Jason English and John Michelsen of iTKO not only is predictive, it is reflective. They think we are “we entering a “Nirvana Age” for software development”. IT Predictions for 2011, and How 2010 Played Out… shares this with us:

Predictions for 2011:

  1. An Agile Resurgence is happening. Companies are increasing their commitment to Agile methodologies.
  2. Enterprise Cloud will take hold.
  3. Shakeout in Testing space is still not done: We have seen that many companies have delayed or deferred replacing their existing UI-based testing and load testing tools and focused mostly on development tools with testing as an afterthought. That is going to change bigtime…

Retrospectives for 2010:

  1. The Cloud took off like we thought it would.
  2. Service Virtualization became a line item on the IT budgets of market leaders.
  3. A weak economy did NOT take any pressure off IT to deliver more functionality, faster, maybe it was even worse due to it.
  4. VMWare successfully defended its near monopoly on large enterprise IT virtualization.
  5. SOA Governance fell flat.

IT Industry Skills

Randy Muller of Global Knowledge has written an article on Top 11 IT Skills for 2011 that presents these items as the top skill sets for geeks like us:

  1. Cloud Computing – including SaaS, Utility Computing, & Web and Platform Services
  2. Programming
  3. Virtualization
  4. Voice
  5. Project Management
  6. Business Intelligence
  7. Security
  8. Web 2.0
  9. Unified Communications
  10. Social Networks & Networking
  11. Helpdesks

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